India’s monsoon season, the heartbeat of its agricultural economy, is poised to bring good news in 2025. According to Skymet Weather, a leading private forecaster, the country is likely to experience a normal monsoon this year, with rainfall expected to be 103% of the long-period average (LPA) of 868.6 mm. This positive projection arrives at a crucial time, offering a ray of hope amid rising concerns over food inflation, heatwaves, and global economic pressures.
In This Article:
What Does a ‘Normal Monsoon’ Mean?
A normal monsoon, as per meteorological standards, is when rainfall falls between 96% and 104% of the LPA. Skymet’s forecast of 103%, with a ±5% margin, comfortably fits this bracket. This indicates that India may receive consistent and well-distributed rainfall from June to September, which is vital for the 60% of agriculture in India that is rainfed.
The ENSO (El Niño–Southern Oscillation) cycle is expected to remain neutral, and the remnants of La Niña are fading—both positive signs. El Niño, which usually disrupts the monsoon by warming the Pacific Ocean, is not expected to interfere this season. Jatin Singh, MD of Skymet, emphasized that this weather neutrality, coupled with favorable oceanic conditions, provides a protective buffer for the upcoming monsoon.
Regional Rainfall Distribution
Skymet predicts healthy rainfall in western and southern India. The agriculturally critical regions of Maharashtra and Madhya Pradesh are expected to see adequate monsoon coverage. Excess rainfall is anticipated in the Western Ghats, Kerala, Goa, and coastal Karnataka. However, there may be a shortfall in rainfall in the North-East and the hilly states of northern India—a factor that will need close monitoring.
Implications for Agriculture
A normal monsoon in 2025 could be transformative for the farming sector. Official data from the statistics ministry indicates that India’s farm output grew by 4.6% in FY25, up from 2.7% the previous year. This upswing was largely due to favorable monsoon patterns and fewer extreme weather events.
With similar conditions projected this year, agriculture is expected to grow between 3.5% and 4%, according to agricultural economist Ashok Gulati. Enhanced rice production, a possibility under normal monsoon conditions, could even bolster India’s export capacity. Given that India is already rice-surplus, a strong kharif crop could translate into increased global competitiveness.
Economic Ripple Effects
India’s agriculture sector contributes 18% to the gross value added (GVA) and supports over 55% of the workforce. A robust monsoon therefore not only uplifts the rural economy but also boosts demand for consumer goods, fertilizers, tractors, and rural infrastructure. This ripple effect can increase factory output, improve capacity utilization, and trigger new investments, particularly in rural-centric industries.
NITI Aayog member Ramesh Chand noted that a healthy monsoon could indirectly benefit non-agricultural sectors too. For an economy projected to grow between 6.3% and 6.8% in FY26, a monsoon-led agricultural boom would help maintain this momentum, even in the face of global trade pressures and inflationary trends.
Softer Food Inflation on the Horizon
India has been grappling with food inflation, largely driven by erratic supply chains and weather disruptions. With a normal monsoon forecasted, food inflation could be contained below 4%, says Chand. Stable prices for staples like rice, pulses, and vegetables would benefit consumers and reduce the fiscal burden of food subsidies.
Furthermore, a good monsoon lowers the demand for energy-intensive irrigation methods, reducing input costs for farmers and easing pressure on energy resources during peak summer months.
Challenges Remain
Despite the optimism, India must stay alert. The heatwave warnings issued by the India Meteorological Department (IMD) highlight ongoing climate volatility. States like Rajasthan, Delhi, and Odisha are already witnessing extreme temperatures. Additionally, the North-East’s below-normal rainfall may affect tea and horticulture sectors.
Policymakers and farmers alike must plan for localized weather aberrations, adopt climate-resilient practices, and invest in crop insurance schemes to cushion against unexpected shocks.
Looking Ahead
The IMD’s official forecast, due after April 15, will provide a more detailed outlook. However, Skymet’s prediction has already set a positive tone. With prudent planning, this monsoon could become a cornerstone for economic revival, enhanced rural prosperity, and price stability.
As India steps into the 2025 monsoon season, all eyes are on the skies—but with renewed hope rather than trepidation.
By – Jyothi
Also Read – India’s Forex Reserves Rise to $676.3 Billion: What It Means for the Economy
