Political scientist Ian Bremmer has described India as geopolitically “much weaker” than global powers like the United States and China, raising questions about its ability to resist pressure from U.S. President Donald Trump. Bremmer’s remarks were made in an exclusive on June 3, 2025, amid discussions on global trade and security dynamics. Ian Bremmer, founder of Eurasia Group, analyzed India’s position under Prime Minister Narendra Modi in the context of Trump’s assertive foreign policy. Bremmer highlighted India’s domestic strength under Modi but underscored its geopolitical limitations, particularly in navigating Trump’s tariff threats and demands. The comments focused on India’s role in South Asia and global trade.
In This Article:
India’s Domestic Strength vs. Geopolitical Weakness
In his June 3, 2025, interview, Ian Bremmer praised Prime Minister Narendra Modi as “arguably the most powerful domestic leader of a major democracy,” citing his over-a-decade-long tenure and ability to shape domestic and foreign policy with minimal opposition. However, Bremmer cautioned that India’s geopolitical clout lags behind superpowers like the U.S. and China, stating, “India is not China, India is not the United States. It is geopolitically much weaker” . He pointed to India’s recent 87-hour military standoff with Pakistan, following the April 22, 2025, Pahalgam terror attack, as placing India in an “uncomfortable” position, despite a ceasefire holding. Bremmer’s analysis suggests India’s regional challenges, including its complex ties with Pakistan and China, limit its global leverage.
Trump’s Influence and India’s Response
Bremmer noted that Trump’s aggressive style intimidates weaker nations, citing examples like Panama and Iran, which quickly acquiesced to U.S. demands on trade and policy. He questioned whether India could stand firm against Trump, saying, “There’s still a lot of uncertainty about to what extent the Indians can and will really stand up to Donald Trump and Americans, if and when the Americans say, we’re making some demands of you that you aren’t going to like.” Trump’s April 2025 tariffs, including a 26% levy on Indian imports, have already slowed India’s growth by an estimated half a percentage point, with further risks if China and the EU retaliate. Despite this, Bremmer acknowledged India’s strategic edge over smaller nations, bolstered by Modi’s successful February 2025 meeting with Trump, described as one of Trump’s most effective bilateral engagements.
India’s Strategic Balancing Act
Bremmer highlighted India’s delicate position, navigating U.S. pressure while maintaining ties with China, a key trade partner and Pakistan’s military backer. He noted Modi’s recent meeting with Xi Jinping as a sign of both nations’ desire for border stability and a predictable global order. India’s role as a conduit for Chinese goods, adding value before export, complicates its response to Trump’s scrutiny of trade flows. Bremmer suggested India’s lower labor costs and efficiency gains position it better than most to counter Trump’s policies, but a stronger U.S. dollar and inflationary pressures could strain its economy. India’s rejection of U.S. claims that Trump’s tariff threats averted war with Pakistan in May 2025 further signals its intent to assert autonomy .
Uncertainty and India’s Future
Bremmer’s assessment underscores uncertainty about India’s ability to resist Trump’s demands, asking, “Is India a strong country that can stand up to Trump, or are they a weak country? I don’t think we know that yet.” While India benefits from deepening U.S. ties as a counterweight to China, Trump’s transactional approach and focus on decoupling from Beijing could test New Delhi’s resolve. With India’s economy projected to lose growth momentum and global trade tensions rising, Modi’s leadership faces a critical juncture. Bremmer’s analysis frames India as a rising power with domestic strength but geopolitical vulnerabilities, navigating a world where Trump’s influence looms large.
-By Manoj H
